Personal project · 2026
A live service that forecasts tomorrow's electricity load for New York's 11 grid zones and the statewide total, then scores itself against what actually happened.
- On par with NYISO's own day-ahead forecast: 4.80% vs. 4.85% average hourly error (MAPE), no significant difference under a paired bootstrap.
- 53% lower error than the best naive baseline over a 12-month backtest.
- Conformal calibration raised how often actual load falls inside the 80% forecast range from 57% to 77%.
- A Temporal Fusion Transformer served as ONNX through FastAPI on GCP, with daily ingestion and a LightGBM fallback; deployed to Kubernetes (kind in CI on every push, and a 72-hour GKE Autopilot trial).